Navigating the Valuation and Risk Simulator (VRS)

The Valuation & Risk Simulator (VRS) is where the findings from your Assessment translate into financial modeling. It uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability-weighted NPV estimates across a configurable set of parameters, giving your team a quantitative basis for deal economics and risk-adjusted valuations.

Navigating to the VRS

From within any Assessment, select the Valuation & Risk tab in the top navigation. Two sub-tabs will be presented:

• The eNPV Scenario Builder is where you configure and run scenarios. The left panel shows the Scenarios list. The center panel contains parameter inputs. The right panel displays the output graphs. A "Show my tasks only" checkbox in the top right filters the parameter list to show only rows assigned to you.
• The Summary & Comparison tab is where you review all saved, successfully run scenarios side by side

Configuring and running a scenario

At the top of the eNPV Scenario Builder, set the scenario name, sensitivity factor, and run type, then click Run eNPV Scenario. You can choose between "Quick Run" or "Exact Run"

• Quick Run includes 100,000 simulations. This enables faster execution. Use when exploring parameters or iterating across scenarios. Results are directionally accurate and suitable for most early-stage analysis.
• Exact Run includes 1,000,000 simulations. This enables greater mathematical precision at the cost of longer run time. Use when finalizing a scenario for committee review or when the asset complexity warrants higher accuracy.

Parameters

Parameters are organized into three sections. Each parameter row displays five columns:

• Benchmark. Industry standard from Andrew Lo at MIT. Pre-populates all fields.
• Input value. The value you enter. Defaults to the benchmark unless overridden.
• Drug assessment value. Carried over automatically when a delta has been set in the Drug Assessment's Impacted Parameters tab.
• Final value. The value the simulation uses, reflecting benchmark, manual input, or Drug Assessment adjustment.
  
  

Costs and patent life expectancy

Free cash flow

Note: when a domain finding in the Drug Assessment leads your team to adjust an impacted parameter (for example, discounting Phase I PTRS by 5% due to a safety signal), that adjusted value is carried over into the VRS automatically as the Drug Assessment Value. It appears alongside the benchmark so you can see exactly what the finding implies for your valuation, and the Final Value reflects the net result.

Output graphs

Once a scenario is run, three graphs update in the right panel:

• eNPV distribution. A probability density curve showing the range of estimated NPV outcomes. The peak is the most probable eNPV. Each scenario renders as a distinct curve, making it easy to see how different assumptions shift the valuation.
• R&D costs vs Free cash flow. Compares projected R&D spend against expected free cash flow across the asset's development lifecycle for each scenario.
• NPV variance. A ranked breakdown of the parameters driving the most uncertainty in your NPV estimate. PTRS across the clinical phases typically dominates — this chart helps your team identify where to focus diligence effort. If Phase III PTRS is the biggest driver, optimizing cost assumptions will have limited impact on the overall valuation.

Click Export from the Summary & Comparison tab to download scenario data. You will be prompted to name the file and select which charts to include. Reports export in Microsoft PowerPoint format. Export to Excel is not currently supported.